Thursday, November 27, 2008

Prediction: Vanderbilt at Wake Forest

7 p.m. EST Saturday, Nov. 29
BB&T Field, Winston-Salem, N.C.

I'm finished doing statistical analysis before a game. It just doesn't matter.

Here's the only stats that seems to matter: Vanderbilt is 0-4 in day games and 6-1 in night games (and the loss was to Florida).

Last week, I analyzed the heck out of both Vanderbilt and Tennessee: offense, defense, special teams, intangibles, you name it. But the game was played in the day. Vanderbilt averages 11 points in day games and surrenders 21. And the final score of the Tennessee game was Commodores 10, Volunteers 20. No kidding.

But Vanderbilt scores 28 points at night and surrenders 21.

The Wake Forest game is at night, so I'm picking the Commodores to win 28-21.

I know, Jared Hawkins is out for the season. Bobby Johnson's talking about playing Ryan van Rensburg, the redshirt freshman who's played in zero games this season, at tailback. Hey, maybe we'll put Nickson at tailback.

Broderick Stewart's out for the season.

Oh yeah, and who's playing quarterback? Will it be Auburn Adams or Duke Adams? Will it be Kentucky Nickson or Tennessee Nickson? Easy — the game's at night, so it will be Auburn Adams and Kentucky Nickson. But whoever's slinging the ball had better be slinging it to D.J. Moore.

As far as Wake's performance at night, the Demon Deacons have played exactly two games under the lights. They won both, but scored one touchdown in eight quarters, beating Florida State 12-3 and Clemson 12-7.

I'm not kidding about this night business. I like us when we play at night. I believe we're gonna win. Don't know how, but I believe it.

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