Sunday, November 2, 2008

SIMPLE MATH: VANDERBILT WINS ONE MORE GAME THIS SEASON, BUT CRUSHES THE VOLUNTEERS

I don't know what the Vanderbilt players were doing on Saturday. Hopefully practicing offense. And if that included giving Larry Smith some reps, I'm fine with that.

But I do know what Vanderbilt's four future opponents were doing, and how they did.

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS JUST A MATHEMATICAL EXERCISE. I KNOW REALITY DOESN'T WORK LIKE THIS. (BUT IT COULD.)

Here's a look:

1. FLORIDA (7-1, 5-1): 8 p.m. Nov. 8, Nashville
Saturday results: Beat No. 8 Georgia 49-10 in Jacksonville
Good signs: Maybe the Gators will be winded after all that scoring the past two weeks. And seriously, are they really concerned about Vanderbilt after destroying a Kentucky team that beat the bad Miss State team that beat Vanderbilt? So maybe we can catch the Gators off guard.
Bad signs: The Gators are going to have to beat themselves. They're arguably the most talented team in the nation, and they've got another national championship in their sights.
Simple math: Georgia beats Vanderbilt by 10 + Florida beats Georgia by 39 = Florida beats Vanderbilt by 49.

2. KENTUCKY (6-3, 2-3): TBA Nov. 15, Lexington, Ky.
Saturday results: Beat Miss State 14-13 in Starkville
Good signs: Scored 14 points against the cowbell-charged Bulldogs, just like the Commodores did back in October. Were 3-14 on third down with their new quarterback rotation. Won only because the Dogs missed a PAT.
Bad signs: The Wildcats did win in Starkville and they are bowl eligible, and you know how we've been saying anything can happen once you get over the hump? And the Commodores are traveling to Lexington, which has fans that are notoriously nasty — if not always fully supportive of the home team.
Simple math: Miss State beats Vanderbilt by 3 + Kentucky beats Miss State by 1 = Kentucky beats Vanderbilt by 4.

3. TENNESSEE (3-6, 1-5): TBA Nov. 22, Nashville
Saturday results: Lose to South Carolina 27-6 in Columbia.
Good signs: The Volunteer offense is horrible. Only 34 yards rushing on Saturday and 3-14 on third down conversions.
Bad signs: But the Volunteer offense is Commodore-esque. And the defense is stout, holding the Gamecocks to 255 yards and 4-17 on third down.
Simple math: Vanderbilt beats South Carolina by 7 + South Carolina beats Tennessee by 21 = Vanderbilt beats Tennessee by 28. I told you this was bad math, but we can dream, can't we?

4. WAKE FOREST (5-3, 3-2 ACC): TBA Nov. 29, Winston-Salem, N.C.
Saturday results: Beat Duke 33-30 in overtime at home in Winston-Salem.
Good signs: The Deacons stumbled against a Duke team that played worse than it did in Nashville last week, turning the ball over four times and missing what would have been the winning field goal in the last seconds. And Wake struggled to move the ball on the ground.
Bad signs: The Deacs did gain 344 total yards of offense, mostly through the air, and converted half of their third down tries (9-18).
Simple math: Duke beat Vanderbilt by 3 + Wake Forest tied Duke in regulation = Wake Forest beats Vanderbilt by a field goal.

SUMMARY: So to recap, the bad math indicates that Vanderbilt gets blown out by Florida (say, 56-7), loses by four to Kentucky (say, 14-10), takes Tennessee to the woodshed (say, 35-7) and loses by a field goal to Wake Forest (say, 17-14).

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