Would a victory over Auburn be huge for Vanderbilt? Well, yeah. The Commodores haven't beaten Auburn since their Gator Bowl victory of 1955, and they haven't beaten the Tigers in Nashville since 1950.
But this is not a make-or-break game for the Commodores. Their goal is to have a winning record and go to a bowl. They can lose to Auburn and still win three out of these five games: Miss State, Duke, Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest. We're assuming they'll lose to Georgia and Florida.
Do they have a chance to upset Auburn, who's a 4-point favorite? Absolutely. This will be the fourth out of five games this season that Vanderbilt has been at least a 4-point underdog. But Vanderbilt can also get a moral victory here. If they play Auburn close and don't lose key players to injury, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the season. Not that the Commodores are approaching this game that way. If Auburn's offense continues to shoot itself in the foot and the Commodores get some breaks, they could be on their way to a season beyond their wildest dreams.
How Vanderbilt can win:
• As the Commodores did against the stingy South Carolina defense, move the ball enough on the ground to maintain decent field position, hang tough and wait for a big play on special teams.
• Force Auburn into fumbles and interceptions, and hold onto the ball.
• Continue to play disciplined football, avoiding penalties.
• Give Chris Nickson time to get out of the pocket and pick up yardage.
• Pressure Chris Todd into sacks and bad throws, and contain Kodi Burns when he runs out of the pocket.
• Keep running backs Brad Lester and Ben Tate from breaking big runs.
How Auburn can win:
• Smash Vanderbilt in the mouth right away, force a turnover, take the lead and take the crowd out of the game.
• Shut down the Vanderbilt running attack and force Nickson to go to the air; he's not a pinpoint passer.
• Contain D.J. Moore, the Vanderbilt defensive back who's a threat to score on offense, defense, punt returns and kickoff returns.
• Continue to play shutdown defense and punt their opponent into poor field position.
• Don't shoot themselves in the foot offensively by turning over the ball, having busted plays and racking up penalties on the offensive line.
• Wear down Vanderbilt with their depth, size and speed. The Commodores have some great athletes, but Auburn has a whole lot more of them.
The bottom line:
Anything could happen in this one. Auburn has the horses, but Vanderbilt is playing together as a team. If Auburn sees this as another opportunity to work out the kinks in its new offense, try to be balanced and develop Chris Todd's passing ability, then the Tigers could be in trouble. But if the Tigers play Kodi Burns, run the ball down the Commodores' throat, grind out the clock and let their defense keep them in a hole, then Vanderbilt could be in trouble.
The folks in Vegas seem to think this is a lock for the Tigers. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't touch this one with a 10-foot pole.
If Auburn is sharp and the Commodores are sloppy, the Tigers could win this one 21-0. But if Auburn is sloppy and Vanderbilt is sharp, the Commodores could win 17-9.
I don't think Tuberville or the Auburn players are worried about this one, though they're saying all the right things. I think they'll be loose. I think Vanderbilt will be jacked up and ready to go.
So I don't know. Let's call it Auburn 17-7. That was my prediction in the South Carolina game, with the Gamecocks winning, and look what happened.
We haven't beaten the Tigers in 53 years, and it would be pretentious of me to pick us to win, so I'm not going to do it. I believe we can do it, but I'll believe it when I see it.
No comments:
Post a Comment