Let's review what we thought would happen Saturday in Starkville and what actually happened.
WHEN VANDERBILT HAD THE BALL
What we thought would happen: Vanderbilt controls the ball on the ground and Adams and Nickson scramble for huge yardage. Vanderbilt's superior punt returning and punt coverage helps Commodores win the battle of field position, and Vanderbilt finishes when it gets in the red zone.
What actually happened: OK, the Commodores did win the battle of field position, thanks to some nice punting by Upson, and they did score when they got in the red zone. But they only got in the red zone twice. The offense was awful, going three and out (or less) on nine of its 12 drives. (In the first half, it took Vanderbilt seven plays to score from 17 yards out after the Bulldogs gift-wrapped a second consecutive shanked punt and then some bone-headed penalties in the end zone.) The Bulldogs covered the Commodore receivers like a blanket and, no, Nickson didn't scramble for huge yardage. And when Adams finally came into the game, it was in desperate, pass-only situations.
WHEN STATE HAD THE BALL:
What we thought would happen: Unless State dramatically improves this week, its offense should struggle on the ground and in the air. It will likely lose the battle of field position. As the Bulldogs did against Auburn, they won't smell the end zone often and when they do they should struggle to get points on the board.
What actually happened: Exactly what we thought would happen. State's offense struggled on the ground and in the air, scoring 10 points that weren't off turnovers, and the Bulldogs wouldn't have reached the end zone at all without Tyson Lee's third down scrambles. The problem? Vanderbilt's offense couldn't stay on the field for more than three plays at a time, which meant the defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in the game.
THE INTANGIBLES
What we thought would play a factor: Vanderbilt continues to lead the nation in turnover margin, with almost two more turnovers collected per game than its opponents. State has a negative margin. Vanderbilt leads the SEC and is among the nation's best in fewest penalties and penalty yards while State is eighth in the conference and among the worst nationally in both categories.
What actually happened: Vanderbilt threw two interceptions out of desperation in the fourth quarter, but forced not a single turnover. It wasn't for a lack of trying. Chris Marve did everything he could to wrench the ball from Anthony Dixon, who is considerably stronger than Dexter McCluster of Ole Miss. And Reshard Langford and D.J. Moore each had shots at interceptions on two separate drives late in the game, and with nothing but open highway in front of them. Alas, it wasn't to be. And as for penalties, State had its usually seven penalties which hurt them plenty. But Vanderbilt had an uncharacteristic 10 penalties. Ouch.
THE FINAL SCORE
What we thought would happen: Vanderbilt 24, Miss State 10
What actually happened: Miss State 17, Vanderbilt 14.
Apparently, the open date helped the Bulldogs, as did playing a home game after brutal road games against Georgia Tech and LSU. But in the end, Vanderbilt beat themselves. Sure, Adams has showed that he can move the ball through the air even when the Commodores can't establish the run. But Johnson believed his team would hang together and get some breaks when it counted. With Nickson at the helm, the offense struggled early against South Carolina, Rice, Ole Miss and Auburn, but then things turned around. In Starkville, things didn't turn around: The Commodores turned the ball over, failed to force turnovers, made stupid penalties and didn't get any breaks. Still, they could have and should have won.
No comments:
Post a Comment