THE MORAL VICTORY PREDICTION: VANDERBILT-MISS STATE

First, let's break down each team:

When Vanderbilt has the ball:
• After facing Auburn, running the ball against the Bulldogs will be a relief. Vanderbilt averages 183 yards/game (3rd SEC) and State allows 178 yards/game (11th SEC). But State is fourth in the SEC in tackles for loss with 6.6/game.
• Vanderbilt will need to establish the run first to move the ball through the air; State gives up 153 yards passing/game (3rd SEC, 10th nation) but is only average pressuring the quarterback.
• Vanderbilt is average converting on third down (37%) and State is above average defending on third down (32%).
• Commodores are nearly unstoppable in the red zone (95%) while State allows teams to score in the red zone 79% of the time.

Summary: Vanderbilt controls the ball on the ground and Adams and Nickson scramble for huge yardage. Vanderbilt's superior punt returning and punt coverage helps Commodores win the battle of field position, and Vanderbilt finishes when it gets in the red zone.

When State has the ball:
• State gains only 113 yards/game on the ground, while Vanderbilt holds its opponents to 121 yards/game.
• State throws for about 200 yards/game, while Vanderbilt holds its opponents to about 212 yards/game.
• State converts only 33% of its third downs, while Vanderbilt holds its opponents to 37%.
• State is last in the SEC on 114th in the nation in red zone scoring at 61% and Vanderbilt is second in the SEC and 11th in the nation in red zone defense at 62%.

Summary: Unless State dramatically improves this week, its offense should struggle on the ground and in the air. It will likely lose the battle of field position. As the Bulldogs did against Auburn, they won't smell the end zone often and when they do they should struggle to get points on the board.

The intangibles:

Vanderbilt continues to lead the nation in turnover margin, with almost two more turnovers collected per game than its opponents. State has a negative margin. Vanderbilt leads the SEC and is among the nation's best in fewest penalties and penalty yards while State is eighth in the conference and among the worst nationally in both categories.

Special teams:

Vanderbilt is only average in kickoff returns, while State leads the conference in defending kick returns. Vanderbilt should contain State's punt returners and should have a decent chance of breaking some nice punt returns.

The MoralVictory prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Miss State 10

Could Vanderbilt lose this one? Absolutely. For one thing, Vanderbilt has played all of its games at night. I don't know what that means. The Bulldogs have some explosive athletes and are solid on defense. But Vanderbilt has been playing together as a team and State has struggled to be consistent. Anything could happen in Starkville, and if the Commodores' last trip to the Magnolia State is any indication, it probably will.