Commodores should be better next season, but that won't necessarily mean a better record

The Commodores won seven games this season and will have 18 starters returning, so they should have no problem winning at least seven games next season and returning to a bowl, right?

Not so fast.

Let's look at the schedule, and notice there will be zero bye weeks, compared to two this past season:

WESTERN CAROLINA (Sept. 5)
• Replaces: Miami-Ohio on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Easier
• Projected line: Vanderbilt -21
• Best outcome: VU 42, WC 06
• Worst outcome: VU 20, WC 10
• Summary: Vanderbilt didn't face a cupcake like this all last season, and it should be a welcome tuneup.

AT LSU (Sept. 12)
• Replaces: Auburn at home
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher
• Projected line: LSU -13
• Best outcome: VU 21, LSU 17
• Worst outcome: LSU 30, VU 07
• Summary: Think Boston College's defensive front was tough? The Commodores will need a big dose of last season's early magic to challenge the Tigers in Baton Rouge.

OLE MISS (Sept. 19)
• Replaces: Ole Miss on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher; Commodores are at home, but the Rebels are only getting better
• Projected line: Ole Miss -3
• Best outcome: VU 24, Ole Miss 17
• Worst outcome: Ole Miss 28, VU 17
• Summary: It's a bummer when one of only two conference teams you expect to beat just won the Cotton Bowl.

AT RICE (Sept. 26)
• Replaces: Rice at home
• Easier or tougher?: Easier; Rice loses a bunch of offensive weapons
• Projected line: Vanderbilt -8
• Best outcome: VU 28, Rice 13
• Worst outcome: Rice 21, VU 20
• Summary: Jared Hawkins should have a big day playing in his own backyard.

MISS STATE (Oct. 3)
• Replaces: Miss State on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Easier
• Projected line: Vanderbilt -3
• Best outcome: Vanderbilt 21, Miss State 10
• Worst outcome: Miss State 20, Vanderbilt 7
• Summary: Think the Commodores won't be motivated against the Bulldogs?

AT ARMY (Oct. 10)
• Replaces: Duke at home
• Easier or tougher?: Easier
• Projected line: Vanderbilt -10
• Best outcome: Vanderbilt 28, Army 6
• Worst outcome: Vanderbilt 13, Army 12
• Summary: This is the rare game in which Vanderbilt has vastly better talent than its opponent.

GEORGIA (Oct. 17)
• Replaces: Georgia on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Easier, especially if Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno jump to the NFL.
• Projected line: Georgia -9
• Best outcome: Vanderbilt 22, Georgia 20
• Worst outcome: Georgia 35, Vanderbilt 13
• Summary: Vanderbilt knows how to beat the Bulldogs, or at least scare them to death

AT SOUTH CAROLINA (Oct. 24)
• Replaces: South Carolina at home
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher
• Projected line: South Carolina -6
• Best outcome: Vanderbilt 17, South Carolina 14
• Worst outcome: South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 6
• Summary: Think Vanderbilt can beat the Gamecocks and Steve Spurrier three games in a row?

GEORGIA TECH (Oct. 31)
• Replaces: Wake Forest on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher
• Projected line: Georgia Tech -4
• Best outcome: Vanderbilt 24, Georgia Tech 14
• Worst outcome: Georgia Tech 31, Vanderbilt 10
• Summary: Nobody wants to play Georgia Tech next season; at least we get the Jackets in Nashville.

AT FLORIDA (Nov. 7)
• Replaces: Florida at home
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher
• Projected line: Florida -21
• Best outcome: UF 28, VU 20
• Worst outcome: UF 56, VU 14
• Summary: Florida just keeps on rolling, and this year the Commodores have to hoof it down to Gainesville.

KENTUCKY (Nov. 14)
• Replaces: Kentucky on the road
• Easier or tougher?: Easier
• Projected line: Vanderbilt -3
• Best outcome: VU 27, UK 14
• Worst outcome: UK 21, VU 10
• Summary: This could be Vanderbilt's easiest conference game, but it won't be easy with the Cats' stout defense and the emergence of quarterback Randall Cobb.

AT TENNESSEE (Nov. 21)
• Replaces: Tennessee at home
• Easier or tougher?: Tougher; we had a good opportunity to win last season and blew it.
• Projected line: Tennessee -6
• Best outcome: VU 17, UT 14
• Worst outcome: UT 21, VU 3
• Summary: It's too bad we don't have any open dates, but I like finishing the season against the Volunteers.

POSSIBLE RECORDS
Best possible: 9-3 (5-3)
Worst possible: 3-9 (0-8)
Moral Victory Early Prediction: 6-6 (3-5); Vanderbilt depends mightily on catching SEC powerhouses in a down year. The Commodores will have a better team next season, and they will beat the teams they'll be expected to beat. But breaking even again in the conference and beating a tough Georgia Tech team will be a tall order.