Moral Victory Predictions for this week's SEC games

No earth-shaking matchups this weekend, but an interesting game here and there. Auburn and SC taking the week off to gear up for Bama and Clemson, respectively.

Here we go with the picks:

Miss State (4-6) at Arkansas (6-4): The Bulldogs are still maintaining hopes of bowl eligibility. Dan Mullen's doing a fine job this year, but the difference in this game will be the quarterbacks — Arkansas has one and the Bulldogs don't. Razorbacks, 27-16.

UTC (who cares?) at Alabama (10-0): People in Alabama kill moccasins with shotguns. That's pretty much what'll happen in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Crimson Tide, 49-0.

Florida (10-0) at Florida International (who cares?): The Gators attack Roary the Panther. Roary? Gators, 38-3.

LSU (8-2) at Ole Miss (7-3): LSU's struggling and Ole Miss is playing well at home. Everybody's talking about Snead, but the Rebels' real hero is its awesome defensive line, which will make it a long day for whoever's playing quarterback for the Tigers. Rebels, 24-20.

Vanderbilt (who cares?) at Tennessee (5-5): The Commodores are starting a cheerleader at cornerback and the guy who pours the Gatorade at linebacker. And they're holding a contest in the parking lot to select one lucky tailgater to start at wide receiver. Nevertheless, expect this one as usual to be closer than the 18 point spread. Volunteers, 21-10.

Kentucky (6-4) at Georgia (6-4): The person who coordinates Vanderbilt's schedule needs to swap notes with the person who coordinates Kentucky's schedule. The Wildcats are the 11th best team in the SEC (by virtue of their loss to Miss State), but are headed to yet another bowl with only two conference victories. This is a tough, well-coached team, though, and it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Cats could win in Athens and then take care of the Vols in Lexington for an impressive (for them) four SEC wins. But the Dawgs are trying to forget about their matchup next week with Georgia Tech, and they should be ready. Bulldogs, 17-14.

2009 Vandy football slogan: Have fun, expect to get injured... but expect to be much better next season

Go to Vandy football message boards, and you'll read angry missives about how our lousy quarterbacks, lousy receivers, lousy offensive line, lousy head coach and especially lousy offensive coordinator led to the demise of this year's team.

Give me a break. And listen up, people: WE LOST TOO MANY KEY PLAYERS THIS SEASON.

Oklahoma was supposed to lose zero games this season and compete for the national championship. The Sooners lost quarterback Sam Bradford and have lost four games — four more than expected.

Vandy was supposed to lose, say, five or six games this season. We've lost an unbelievable number of players, and we're going to lose probably 10 games — four more than expected.

We've played almost the entire season without SEVEN starters (five of them on offense) and four key backups, and another EIGHT starters (six of them on offense) have missed at least one game. In fact, Bradley Vierling was the only preseason offensive starter not to miss a game this season. (That's if, like me, you'd projected Wheeler, Jeffers-Harris and Cole to start at receiver.)

Now we're facing Tennessee without NFL cornerback prospect Myron Lewis and probably linebacker Patrick Benoist.

Here's another thing: Even with our improved depth, we can't reload as quickly as other teams when we lose key players.

Consider this partial list of losses:

MISSED ALL OR MOST OF THE SEASON:

• Terrance Jeffers-Harris, starting receiver: Academically ineligible
• Justin Wheeler, starting receiver: Career-ending knee injury
• James Williams, starting offensive tackle: Broken leg
• Jared Hawkins, starting running back: Foot injury
• Austin Monahan, starting tight end: Knee injury
• Steven Stone, starting defensive end: Broken foot
• Ryan Hamilton, starting safety: Torn pectoral muscle
• Nate Campbell, backup linebacker: Dismissed from team
• Tristan Strong, backup linebacker: Knee injury
• Alan Strong, backup cornerback: Transferred to TSU
• Jay Fullam, backup safety: Injured hand

MISSED AT LEAST ONE GAME:
• Thomas Welch, starting offensive tackle: Injury
• John Cole, starting wide receiver: Broken hand
• Ryan Custer, starting guard: Injury
• Jamie Graham, starting defensive back/receiver: Concussion
• Larry Smith, starting quarterback: Torn hamstring
• Zac Stacy, starting running back: Ankle injury
• Sean Richardson, starting safety: Injured hand
• Myron Lewis, starting cornerback: Knee injury
• Eric Samuels, backup defensive back: Injury and a possible team issue

For the love of Dan McGugin, let's stop talking about who should replace Bobby Johnson. This is not "Same Old Vandy." If Johnson had experienced this kind of attrition his first season, he'd have been losing games 70-0 by the end of the season.

Sure, this has been a nightmarish season because of all the players we've lost. But the fact that we can still hang tough with bowl-bound teams like South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky is a testament to our depth, especially our defensive depth.

And consider this: Because of this one bad season, we'll be deeper and more experienced than ever next season.

More Vandy commits contemplating switching dance partners

How big would it be if Vandy upset Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend?

Considering the Dores are an 18-point dog, it would be a shocking, satisfying upset.

And it might help keep some of our verbal commitments from breaking up with us. As Vandy's season has fallen apart, the high school seniors who've committed to the Commodores are acting like, well, high school seniors. They're starting to notice prettier looking prospects, and a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

This week, tight end Davis Dudchock did what he had to do and snubbed us for everybody's current sweetheart, Stanford.

Meanwhile, Bradley Roby, a receiver who could start immediately for us, is being wooed heavily by Auburn and now considers Vandy and the Tigers dead even.

Jerrell Priester, a fast little guy who's being compared to fellow South Carolinian D.J. Moore, now considers his commitment to Vandy to be "soft." He's got offers from Notre Dame and Kentucky, and you've got to believe Spurrier's not going to make the same mistake twice with a recruit in his backyard. (Why did we beat SC twice in a row? D.J. Moore.)

Speaking of soft commitments, defensive lineman Jared Morse has offers from Auburn, Arkansas, Florida State and Kentucky.

Oh yeah, and Georgia native Kenneth Ladler's also being wooed by South Carolina.

Here's another problem: You know who landed a ton of our top recruits, including Roby? Ted Cain, the guy every Vandy fan is bashing right now. You don't think the coaches at Auburn are telling Roby that Cain's going to be gone next season?

Even if all those guys jumped ship, this would still be Johnson's best class ever. But it would be mighty tough to watch all these guys play against us on Saturday, especially if we're losing like we usually do.

Moral Victory! SEC Power Ratings: Ole Miss makes a move, Vandy stuck at bottom

Alabama and Florida remain the top two teams in the nation, and will battle for the right to play Texas, barring any crazy upsets. Vandy sealed its position in the cellar last weekend, while Ole Miss made the biggest jump. Here we go:

1. ALABAMA: 10-0 (7-0)
Stock: Holding steady
Remaining games: UTC, at Auburn, vs. Florida (SEC Championship)
Best case: 13-0 (9-0); BCS National Championship Game
Worst case: 11-2 (7-2); Sugar Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 12-1 (8-1); Sugar Bowl

2. FLORIDA: 10-0 (8-0)
Stock: Holding steady
Remaining games: Florida International, Florida State, vs. Alabama
Best case: 13-0 (9-0); BCS National Championship Game
Worst case: 11-2 (11-2); Sugar Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 13-0 (9-0); BCS National Championship Game

3. LSU: 7-2 (4-2)
Stock: Holding steady, but poised for a collapse
Remaining games: at Ole Miss, Arkansas
Best case: 10-2 (6-2); Capital One Bowl
Worst case: 8-4 (4-4); Independence Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 9-4 (4-4); Chick-Fil-A Bowl

4. GEORGIA: 6-4 (4-3)
Stock: Rising from No. 5
Remaining games: Kentucky, at Ga Tech
Best case: 8-4 (5-3); Capital One Bowl
Worst case: 6-6 (4-4); Independence Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 7-5 (5-3); Outback Bowl

5. OLE MISS: 7-3 (3-3)
Stock: Way up, rising from No. 8
Remaining games: LSU, at Miss State
Best case: 9-3 (5-3); Capital One Bowl
Worst case: 7-5 (3-5); Independence Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 9-3 (5-3); Capital One Bowl

6. TENNESSEE: 5-5 (2-4)
Stock: Dropping from No. 6
Remaining games: Vanderbilt, at Kentucky
Best case: 7-5 (4-4); Outback or Cotton Bowl
Worst case: 5-7 (2-6); No bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 7-5 (4-4); Music City Bowl

7. ARKANSAS: 6-4 (2-4)
Stock: Holding steady (though dropping from No. 6)
Remaining games: Miss State, at LSU
Best case: 8-4 (4-4); Cotton Bowl
Worst case: 6-6 (2-6); no bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 8-4 (4-4); Cotton Bowl

8. AUBURN: 7-4 (3-4)
Stock: Dropping from No. 7
Remaining games: Alabama (after bye week)
Best case: 8-4 (4-4); Capital One Bowl
Worst case: 7-5 (3-5); Independence Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 7-5 (3-5); Liberty Bowl

9. S CAROLINA: 6-5 (3-5)
Remaining games: Clemson (after bye week)
Best case: 7-5 (3-5); Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Worst case: 6-6 (3-5); Papajohns.com Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 6-6 (3-5); Independence Bowl

10. MISS STATE: 4-6 (2-4)
Stock: Holding steady
Remaining games: at Arkansas, Ole Miss
Best case: 6-6 (4-4); Liberty Bowl
Worst case: 4-8 (2-6); no bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 4-8 (2-6); no bowl

11. KENTUCKY: 6-4 (2-4)
Stock: Holding steady
Remaining games: at Georgia, Tennessee
Best case: 8-4 (4-4); Outback Bowl
Worst case: 6-6 (2-6); Papajohns.com Bowl
Moral Victory! Prediction: 6-6 (2-6); Papajohns.com Bowl

12. VANDERBILT: 2-9 (0-7)
Stock: Stuck at the bottom
Remaining games: at Tennessee
Best case: 3-9 (1-7)
Worst case: 2-10 (0-8)
Moral Victory! Prediction: 2-10 (0-8)

Top Vandy recruit Dudchock jumps ship to Stanford

Lots of people have worried about the effect Vandy's lousy season would have on all those outstanding verbal commitments.

Well, espn.com is reporting that Davis Dudchock, a four-star tight end from Alabama, has switched his commitment from Vanderbilt to Stanford, a top academic school whose gridiron success is making Commodore fans even more restless these days.

No worry, though. The Commodores quickly replaced him with... Blake Gowder, a 6-foot-1, 200-pound FULLBACK who had offers from Air Force, Samford, Georgia State and Murray State.

And we don't even use a fullback in our system. And we've already got a former three-star fullback, redshirt sophomore Ryan van Rensburg, who's been playing some at blocking tight end since the injury to Austin Monahan, but whose playing days appeared numbered by the eminent arrival of... Davis Dudchock.

We don't need to expand our collection of scrappy little players who are playing in the SEC only because Vandy will take them and who can play six different positions, none of them well enough to start. We need big, fast athletes who can play now.

But here's hope for Gowder: He did have 1,453 yards and eight touchdowns receiving and he's listed by some services as a wide receiver. But he's way too short to be playing tight end in the SEC and he's way too slow (4.7 40) to be a receiver in the SEC. Maybe he'll play linebacker for us.

Some other verbal commitments have been talking about jumping ship too, including DT Jared Morse, ATH Jerrell Priester and DB Kenneth Ladler, who's now saying he wants to enroll early (except Vanderbilt doesn't allow recruits to enroll in the spring).

Here are some guys we absolutely need on the team next year:
• Wide receiver Bradley Roby, a fast, sure-handed burner who can actually separate from defensive backs and close on a long ball. He could start right away.
• Wide receiver Jonathan Krause, a quick receiver who can get open and get tough yards after the catch.

And here are some guys who, long-term, we can't afford to lose:
• Defensive tackles Kyle Woestmann and Vince Taylor.
• Offensive linemen Grant Ramsay and Logan Stewart.
• Defensive ends Thomas Ryan and James Kittredge
• Defensive backs Andre Hal, Karl Butler and Andre Simmons.

Analysis of Vandy-Kentucky highlights

Ah yes, it's time once again to break down our weekly highlights, which this year have contained a curious number of touchdowns scored by our opponents.

Here's this week's breakdown:

1. Assorted Commodore interceptions, Lewis and Foster (37 seconds)
2. Assorted Mackenzi Adams passes to John Cole, including the TD (36 seconds)
3. Assorted Ryan Fowler field goals (27 seconds)
4. Assorted Randall Cobb touchdowns (24 seconds)
5. Team rushing out onto field at the start of the game (20 seconds)

Hey, where's the footage of the black-and-gold-clad crowd going crazy when the Commodores took the lead?

Forget Saturday's game in Knoxville...we're looking to the future (and the future may or may not mean Brady Brown)

Sure, I'll watch Vandy give it the old college try on Saturday night in Knoxville. But I'm not going to spend much time worrying about the game (6 p.m. on ESPNU).

Not much to analyze: The Volunteers don't have much finesse on offense, but they're big and strong athletic and they're going to try to wear us down just like they did last year and just like Kentucky and everybody else in the SEC did to us this year. And if they give us the ball, well, they can just wait three downs until we punt it back to them.

Team Moral Victory is not quitting on the Dores, but we do plan to spend this week looking at our prospects for next season and then give it a rest for a while until something happens with recruiting or coaching changes or something like that. You'll forgive us if we don't recap the Top 10 plays of the season or name a team MVP or any of that crap that's fun to do if, say, your team goes to a bowl for the first time in 53 years.

Anyway, today we're going to look at our true freshmen in the order of votes received in our "Who'll play as a true freshman?" fan poll:

• Brady Brown (56%): LIMITED ACTION. Everybody, including us, was sure that the 6-foot-5 Texan would make an immediate impact as a possession receiver and be starting by the end of the season. He did play as a true freshman, but he turned out to be only 6-3, and he's only seen time in four games and hasn't caught a pass. Still, he's a raw prospect who should improve and compete for playing time next season — but his biggest competitors, huge targets Chris Boyd and David Dudchock, graduate from high school next spring.

• Zac Stacy (44%): PART-TIME STARTER. Had the best chance of the freshmen tailbacks to play right away, and thanks to Jared Hawkins' injury, he started the season opener and broke 100 yards, then looked impressive against LSU in Baton Rouge. Hampered by ankle injuries most of the season, but has shown flashes of brilliance and his future is bright, especially with plans to repair that ankle in the offseason.

• Eric Samuels (44%): LIMITED ACTION. The prep running back/defensive back was moved immediately into the secondary, where he had a sensational opening game, intercepting a pass and recovering a fumble. But he was injured on the interception return and was never the same, seeing spot duty in the middle of the season and then vanishing altogether with the emergence of fellow freshman Eddie Foster. Will get a close look in the spring at corner, safety or nickel, where he should get a jump on all those true freshmen DBs who'll show up for preseason camp.

• Wesley Tate (39%): REDSHIRT. Despite a solid preseason camp, he was overshadowed by Warren Norman and has been a sure redshirt. But he has all the tools to be a big-time SEC tailback — even more so than Stacy and Norman, who are change-of-pace guys — and will get every opportunity in the spring to be a powerful go-to back who'll wear down opposing defenses. He'll certainly benefit from an extra year of weight lifting and drills.

• Trey Wilson (36%): SECOND-TEAM CORNERBACK. Missed all of preseason camp after dropping a bed on his toe while moving into his dorm, but was too good to keep off the field. He's played in every game, is a fixture on the depth chart as a backup corner and special teams contributor, and could grab a starting job next year as a true sophomore like Casey Hayward and Sean Richardson did this year.

• Javon Marshall (27%): REDSHIRT. Even with the team desperate for secondary help, Marshall didn't make waves in the preseason and has been headed for a redshirt since the opener. And with a bunch of corners and safeties committed to join the team next year, he may be in an uphill climb for playing time during his Commodore career.

• Warren Norman (21%): STARTER. Expected to redshirt and put on weight, Norman instead burst on the scene in the preseason, rushed for more than 100 yards in the opener, and has been a revelation as a kick returner, taking three to the house and closing in on Herschel Walker's record for most all-purpose yards by a freshman. Though nobody's excited about the Commodore offense, everybody's excited about this kid's future.

• Eddie Foster (10%): PART-TIME STARTER. Considered too light to play as a true frosh, Foster wowed coaches in the preseason with his speed, savvy and toughness. By the end of the season, he was starting at nickelback. The fastest player on the field, Foster's future is bright. Hey, can he line up at wide receiver?

• Mason Johnston (7%): REDSHIRT. With Barden and Monahan anchoring the tight end position, Johnston was a lock to redshirt, and after Monahan was lost for the year the coaches kept him on the bench and turned instead to fullback Ryan van Rensburg and wide receiver Justin Green. He'll compete next season with Barden, Monahan and four-star commitment Davis Dudchock.

• Justin Cabbagestalk (5%): REDSHIRT. Offensive linemen always redshirt at Vandy, but Cabbagestalk had the added burden of facing a criminal trial. (Nothing as serious as holding up somebody at a Knoxville service station and making a getaway in a Prius.) He's suspended this season and has been on campus practicing with the team. We'll see if he's here next year.

• Jay Fullam (4%): INJURED/REDSHIRT. Overshadowed by the other freshmen DBs on signing day, Fullam impressed coaches in the preseason and was a lock to play right away until he broke his hand and needed surgery. Expect the Chattanooga native to challenge for Ryan Hamilton's old starting position in the spring.

• Charlie Goro (4%): REDSHIRT. A redshirt from Day One, Goro's been traveling to all the games and calling in signals while junior Jared Funk's been playing special teams. He'll get his shot in the spring. By all accounts, he's a winner and a leader who's got good wheels and a quick but not particularly strong arm. Expect him to see some spot action and assume the backup quarterback role next season, and to be ready to go if Larry Smith is injured or falters.

• Thad McHaney (4%): REDSHIRT. A big, fast kid who was lost in the mix at defensive end but will get a shot in the spring. He's been on the get-bigger-get-stronger plan.

• Blake Southerland (4%): REDSHIRT. With Brent Trice and Patrick Benoist graduating, we're looking for some new blood at linebacker, and Southerland will challenge the four-headed Strong-Jones-Barnes-Daniels monster of current redshirt freshmen.

• Wesley Johnson (2%): REDSHIRT. A terrific offensive line prospect who right now is packing on the pounds and hoisting the weights, the Nashville native will get every chance to crack the lineup at guard or even possibly center in the spring.

• Mylon Brown (1%): REDSHIRT. The rare true freshman lineman at Vandy who tips the scales past 300, Brown is a raw, powerful guy who'll get a chance to play at tackle or guard. Jamie Bryant would love for a couple of redshirt freshmen to nail down starting jobs for the next four years.

• Walker May (1%): REDSHIRT. A bit light in the pants, May nevertheless wowed coaches in the preseason and dang near got a shot to play defensive end after Steven Stone broke his foot. Now he's packing on the pounds. He's a long, fast, disruptive player who'll make a splash in the spring.

• Collin Ashley (N/A): SECOND-TEAM RECEIVER. How bad was the Commodores' receiving corps? Well, after signing day, Justin Wheeler blew out his knee ending his career and Terrance Jeffers wasn't wowing anybody in the classroom, and so Bobby Johnson saw the writing on the wall and went out and got Ashley, an undersized but game-ready receiver from a big Texas high school who was planning to walk on at Arkansas. Ashley's played in every game and is fearless over the middle. Ideally, he's a role player who lacks the strength and ability to separate from SEC corners that we're hoping verbal commitments Bradley Roby and Jonathan Krause will bring next year. But he's stepped up when nobody else has, and our hat's off to him.