Friday, September 19, 2008

PREVIEW: THE OLE MISS GAME

VANDERBILT (3-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. OLE MISS (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
6 p.m. CT Saturday, Sept. 20, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.

In Vanderbilt's favor:
• Pass defense: You know Houston Nutt wants his blue-chip backs to grind it out behind his mammoth offensive line. But Ole Miss is going to have to pass to win, and the Vandy D got a tuneup in that department last week against Rice. Rebel QB Jevan Snead hasn't been sacked yet, but I say that changes Saturday night.
• Special teams: Special teams were the difference in the South Carolina game, when Vandy played solid defense, tried its best to move the ball and hung around until a blocked field goal and a fumbled punt gave them a second wind. And if D.J. Moore gets near the end zone, he's going in.
• Likes to travel: The Commodores play better on the road than they do at home. And they almost always play well in Oxford.

In Ole Miss's favor:
• Balanced attack: Vandy's opponent last week, Rice, could pass. The Rebels can pass and run.
• Defensive reinforcements: DE Greg Hardy, who was supposed to be out until the end of the month with a foot injury, practiced this week and will likely play Saturday. DTs Peria Jerry and Ted Laurent are back in the lineup, too. Hardy and Jerry are sure-fire NFL draft picks. Their presence poses a problem for Vanderbilt's running game.
• The Grove: The Rebels gush about the wonderful game-day atmosphere in Oxford, and Houston Nutt talks about the great championship tradition at Ole Miss, which is evidence that he's old. These guys like playing at home.

As with South Carolina, the Rebels will look fast and powerful, especially their lines on both sides of the ball. But I see the Commodores hanging tough, sticking around, and making a big play when they have to. I think special teams will be the difference in this one.

The Moral Victory prediction: VANDERBILT 21, OLE MISS 20

Moral Victory Meter: Zero

We've beaten Ole Miss too many times to get moral victories against them. Unlike in the MiamiO and Rice games, we could lose this one and still salvage the season. I think Houston Nutt has already turned the Rebels around and they could be bowl-bound, but this one is far more obtainable than the Auburn game week after next.

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