We'd predicted Vandy to be 2-2 right now, but the UConn pick, which was wishful thinking to begin with, didn't work out. So now we're 1-3.
Can we still finish 6-6?
Yes.
Our forecast hinges on everything clicking at the end of the season and us finishing the season with an uncharacteristic three victories, over Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest, all games that appeared and still appear to be possibly winnable.
All we need is to enter that stretch at 3-6, which means we must pick up two wins in our next five games:
• Eastern Michigan
• At Georgia
• South Carolina
• At Arkansas
• Florida
Obviously, we've got to take care of business against EMU, which mainly involves not telling ourselves that their uniforms make them look an awful lot like unbeaten Michigan State.
That would make us 2-3. Our best bet to pick up another win before the final stretch would be to upset either Georgia on the road or South Carolina at home. If we're headed to Arkansas needing to win four of our last five games to become bowl eligible, then we're cooked and we'll need to pull Woody Widenhofer out of his toll booth in Destin to give us one of his "Have fun and expect to win" pep talks.
Speaking of expecting to win, I'm looking forward to playing a team we're supposed to beat. Enjoy it, because it's the only time this season we're playing somebody we're supposed to beat.
Let's win!
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Eleven players we'd like to see play tonight
So we're supposed to kill EMU tonight. Last I saw it, the spread was up to 26, which begs the question, "Has Vanderbilt ever been a 26-point favorite over ANYBODY?
Remember, we're a 26-point favorite not because we're good but because EMU is so stinking bad.
I don't think we'll cover. In the preseason, I predicted 30-10 and I'll stick with that. Hopefully, we smash them in the mouth early and take a four touchdown lead and put all those freshmen who are playing special teams onto offense and defense.
I'd like to see these guys get some meaningful minutes on offense:
• QB Charlie Goro, R-Fr.
• C James Kittredge, Fr.
• WR Jordan Matthews, Fr.
• WR Brady Brown, R-Fr.
• WR Chris Boyd, Fr.
And on defense:
• DE Walker May, R-Fr.
• CB Andre Hal, Fr.
• CB Steven Clarke, Fr.
• S Andre Simmons, Fr
• S Karl Butler, Fr.
• LB Chase Garnham, Fr.
Remember, we're a 26-point favorite not because we're good but because EMU is so stinking bad.
I don't think we'll cover. In the preseason, I predicted 30-10 and I'll stick with that. Hopefully, we smash them in the mouth early and take a four touchdown lead and put all those freshmen who are playing special teams onto offense and defense.
I'd like to see these guys get some meaningful minutes on offense:
• QB Charlie Goro, R-Fr.
• C James Kittredge, Fr.
• WR Jordan Matthews, Fr.
• WR Brady Brown, R-Fr.
• WR Chris Boyd, Fr.
And on defense:
• DE Walker May, R-Fr.
• CB Andre Hal, Fr.
• CB Steven Clarke, Fr.
• S Andre Simmons, Fr
• S Karl Butler, Fr.
• LB Chase Garnham, Fr.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Wish list for Vanderbilt's game with Eastern Michigan
Vandy's a 23.5-point favorite in this one. So we're better than EMU and we should win handily, right? So what do we hope to accomplish?
1. Win the game. Caldwell needs to play to win. How many times have we seen Vandy play not to lose against the likes of the Citadel or Army or another one of the rare teams we're supposed to beat. On offense, let's come out on every drive like we're down three points and let's take the ball down the field and score. It would be bitterly disappointing to me and many other fans if we took a 10-0 lead and sat on it.
2. Play our game, then work on our game. Our strength: Warren Norman and Zac Stacy and even Tate and Reeves. Let's get the ball to those guys. Our weakness: Our passing game. Let's get the game under control and then let's start working on the passing game.
3. Play Charlie Goro. Yes, Jared Funk has faithfully practiced and held a clipboard for five years and has an NFL arm and all that. He's also thrown one pass for one of the worst offenses in college football. Time to move on. If we have a handy lead in the third quarter and want to give Funk a series, great. But let's get Charlie some work. Look what Randy Edsell's been doing with his QBs at UConn. Before the Vandy game, he replaced his No. 1 quarterback, a senior, with his No. 3 quarterback, a junior. But his No. 2 quarterback, a redshirt freshman, kept his job as the top backup.
4. Play all three freshman receivers at the same time. Get Chris Boyd into the game and let him run with Krause and Matthews and get those guys some catches.
5. Get James Kittredge and Logan Stewart some snaps. We're going to need more than six regular offensive linemen during our stretch run in the SEC. Those guys shouldn't see their first significant action against Florida or Arkansas. Let's get them some PT now.
6. Sit Zac and Warren. If we get a lead, let's go with Kennard Reeves and Wesley Tate. Reeves is a tough runner and is one guy who deserves to tote the rock. And let's show off some of Wes' versatility. Isn't he more than just a short yardage back?
Go Dores.
1. Win the game. Caldwell needs to play to win. How many times have we seen Vandy play not to lose against the likes of the Citadel or Army or another one of the rare teams we're supposed to beat. On offense, let's come out on every drive like we're down three points and let's take the ball down the field and score. It would be bitterly disappointing to me and many other fans if we took a 10-0 lead and sat on it.
2. Play our game, then work on our game. Our strength: Warren Norman and Zac Stacy and even Tate and Reeves. Let's get the ball to those guys. Our weakness: Our passing game. Let's get the game under control and then let's start working on the passing game.
3. Play Charlie Goro. Yes, Jared Funk has faithfully practiced and held a clipboard for five years and has an NFL arm and all that. He's also thrown one pass for one of the worst offenses in college football. Time to move on. If we have a handy lead in the third quarter and want to give Funk a series, great. But let's get Charlie some work. Look what Randy Edsell's been doing with his QBs at UConn. Before the Vandy game, he replaced his No. 1 quarterback, a senior, with his No. 3 quarterback, a junior. But his No. 2 quarterback, a redshirt freshman, kept his job as the top backup.
4. Play all three freshman receivers at the same time. Get Chris Boyd into the game and let him run with Krause and Matthews and get those guys some catches.
5. Get James Kittredge and Logan Stewart some snaps. We're going to need more than six regular offensive linemen during our stretch run in the SEC. Those guys shouldn't see their first significant action against Florida or Arkansas. Let's get them some PT now.
6. Sit Zac and Warren. If we get a lead, let's go with Kennard Reeves and Wesley Tate. Reeves is a tough runner and is one guy who deserves to tote the rock. And let's show off some of Wes' versatility. Isn't he more than just a short yardage back?
Go Dores.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Vandy has a much bigger problem than Larry Smith
OK, so everybody’s screaming for Larry Smith to be benched. And they have a point:
Larry is the nation’s 98th most efficient passer, and the leader of the 111th – or ninth worst – yardage-generating passing offense in the nation. No way any SEC team could overcome that kind of miserable quarterback play, right?
Um, wrong.
Statistically speaking, Larry is not even the worst quarterback in the SEC.
LSU’s Jordan Jefferson has a passing efficiency rating of 111 – an 88.0 compared to Larry’s 109.0 – and is the leader of the 112th – or eighth worst – yardage-generating passing attack in the nation.
But maybe you’ve noticed that the Bayou Bengals are 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. So what’s the difference?
While Jordan and the LSU passing attack are even worse than Smith and Vandy, LSU has this going for it:
• A ground game that generates 196 yards/game and ranks fourth in the SEC and 33rd in the nation (compared to Vandy’s 163 yards, which ranks eighth in the SEC and 58th in the nation.
• The SEC’s best and nation’s sixth-best run defense at 79 yards/game (compared to Vandy’s 203.5 yards, which is No. 105 in the nation and by far the SEC’s worst).
• The SEC’s best and nation’s sixth-best total defense at 247 yards/game (compared to Vandy’s 379 yards/game, which is dead last in the SEC).
Kind of puts things in perspective, doesn’t it? Jordan Jefferson has been truly awful while operating behind a mammoth, 5-star offensive line and throwing to three potential first-round draft picks in receivers Reuben Randle, Terrence Tolliver and Russell Shepard.
But LSU can grind it out with a prototypical NFL tailback, something other teams can’t do against them because of their killer run defense.
Meanwhile, Larry Smith operates behind an undersized, inexperienced offensive line with one or two guys who got 3 stars in high school, throwing to a receiving corps whose veterans couldn’t play for any other SEC teams and whose best players are brand-new freshmen.
Oh, and Vandy can’t grind it out with its offensive line and small, shifty backs. But other teams can grind it out against them because Vandy has the nation’s 105th best run defense.
Sure, we have the SEC’s fourth best passing defense, good for No. 30 in the nation, but how much of that is because teams don’t throw much against us because they know they can pound it down our throats?
Did Larry beat us on Saturday?
No. Husky running back Jordan Todman and the UConn offensive line beat us.
If you’re looking for a scapegoat, you can start with our defensive front, which started two sophomores because both of the preseason starters – Adam Smotherman and T.J. Greenstone – were out with injuries.
I don't recommend it, because it's not a matter of effort on the part of our D-line, which has never boasted a 300+ pound talent like every other team in the SEC does.
(Speaking of which, fans have been screaming for the true freshmen wide receivers but it’s interesting that nobody seems to be asking about our true freshmen defensive linemen, one of the true strengths of the 2010 signing class. Bobby Johnson said it was the best, most game-ready group of D-linemen he’d ever signed. Remember that?)
The strength of recent Vandy teams, including the Music City Bowl champs, has been a talented back seven. Those guys — which include Jonathan Goff and Patrick Benoist and Chris Marve and D.J. Moore and Casey Hayward and Eddie Foster — are easier to find and develop than, say, mammoth defensive linemen.
Or quarterbacks.
LSU, with a cup running over at every position but quarterback, has no excuse.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, does.
I know you're tired of excuses, but today — with a 1-3 record and the SEC's worst total offense and worst total defense — that's kind of what we've got.
Larry is the nation’s 98th most efficient passer, and the leader of the 111th – or ninth worst – yardage-generating passing offense in the nation. No way any SEC team could overcome that kind of miserable quarterback play, right?
Um, wrong.
Statistically speaking, Larry is not even the worst quarterback in the SEC.
LSU’s Jordan Jefferson has a passing efficiency rating of 111 – an 88.0 compared to Larry’s 109.0 – and is the leader of the 112th – or eighth worst – yardage-generating passing attack in the nation.
But maybe you’ve noticed that the Bayou Bengals are 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. So what’s the difference?
While Jordan and the LSU passing attack are even worse than Smith and Vandy, LSU has this going for it:
• A ground game that generates 196 yards/game and ranks fourth in the SEC and 33rd in the nation (compared to Vandy’s 163 yards, which ranks eighth in the SEC and 58th in the nation.
• The SEC’s best and nation’s sixth-best run defense at 79 yards/game (compared to Vandy’s 203.5 yards, which is No. 105 in the nation and by far the SEC’s worst).
• The SEC’s best and nation’s sixth-best total defense at 247 yards/game (compared to Vandy’s 379 yards/game, which is dead last in the SEC).
Kind of puts things in perspective, doesn’t it? Jordan Jefferson has been truly awful while operating behind a mammoth, 5-star offensive line and throwing to three potential first-round draft picks in receivers Reuben Randle, Terrence Tolliver and Russell Shepard.
But LSU can grind it out with a prototypical NFL tailback, something other teams can’t do against them because of their killer run defense.
Meanwhile, Larry Smith operates behind an undersized, inexperienced offensive line with one or two guys who got 3 stars in high school, throwing to a receiving corps whose veterans couldn’t play for any other SEC teams and whose best players are brand-new freshmen.
Oh, and Vandy can’t grind it out with its offensive line and small, shifty backs. But other teams can grind it out against them because Vandy has the nation’s 105th best run defense.
Sure, we have the SEC’s fourth best passing defense, good for No. 30 in the nation, but how much of that is because teams don’t throw much against us because they know they can pound it down our throats?
Did Larry beat us on Saturday?
No. Husky running back Jordan Todman and the UConn offensive line beat us.
If you’re looking for a scapegoat, you can start with our defensive front, which started two sophomores because both of the preseason starters – Adam Smotherman and T.J. Greenstone – were out with injuries.
I don't recommend it, because it's not a matter of effort on the part of our D-line, which has never boasted a 300+ pound talent like every other team in the SEC does.
(Speaking of which, fans have been screaming for the true freshmen wide receivers but it’s interesting that nobody seems to be asking about our true freshmen defensive linemen, one of the true strengths of the 2010 signing class. Bobby Johnson said it was the best, most game-ready group of D-linemen he’d ever signed. Remember that?)
The strength of recent Vandy teams, including the Music City Bowl champs, has been a talented back seven. Those guys — which include Jonathan Goff and Patrick Benoist and Chris Marve and D.J. Moore and Casey Hayward and Eddie Foster — are easier to find and develop than, say, mammoth defensive linemen.
Or quarterbacks.
LSU, with a cup running over at every position but quarterback, has no excuse.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, does.
I know you're tired of excuses, but today — with a 1-3 record and the SEC's worst total offense and worst total defense — that's kind of what we've got.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
So we're not much different from Buffalo after all
Ouch. So after a promising first half we get pulverized by UConn. Just like Buffalo had a promising first half against the Huskies and got pulverized.
A bowl bid has been a pipe dream since the beginning of the season but it's really starting to look out of reach, huh?
Meanwhile, Tennessee is leading LSU 14-10 late in the game in Baton Rouge.
The big question now is whether we keep Coach Caldwell. You'll hear lots of people screaming for Mike Leach and Tony Dungy and the ghost of Vince Lombardi and all sorts of options. We'll certainly give you our opinion as we go along. Have a good Saturday night. Go Gators.
A bowl bid has been a pipe dream since the beginning of the season but it's really starting to look out of reach, huh?
Meanwhile, Tennessee is leading LSU 14-10 late in the game in Baton Rouge.
The big question now is whether we keep Coach Caldwell. You'll hear lots of people screaming for Mike Leach and Tony Dungy and the ghost of Vince Lombardi and all sorts of options. We'll certainly give you our opinion as we go along. Have a good Saturday night. Go Gators.
Against UConn, Vanderbilt keeps producing big plays
It's halftime, we're tied 21-21, and already we've seen:
• A 66-yard kick return by Warren Norman that led to a TD.
• A 56-yard TD run by true freshman Jonathan Krause.
• A 44-yard TD pass from Larry Smith to Udom Umoh.
• A 57-yard run by Larry Smith.
• An 8-yard TD pass from Larry to Brandon Barden.
Last year, our big play capability seemed limited to Warren's kick returns. This year, we've got more weapons — or at least are using them.
We've got 253 yards of total offense at halftime. Take away the runs by Krause and Smith and the pass from Smith to Umoh and we'd have 96 yards of total offense. But hey, we'll take them any way we can get them.
And speaking of using our tools, we've had six guys (Smith, Stacy, Reeves, Norman, Tate, Krause) carry the ball 17 times for 139 yards, and five guys (Barden, Krause, Umoh, Wimberly) catch the ball eight times for 114 yards.
That's spreading it around. It's especially encouraging to see how we bounced back from a 14-0 deficit built largely on two plays — Krause's fumble on the first play of the game deep in VU territory and our failed fourth down conversion on the UConn 14 yard line after Larry's run had gotten us deep in Husky territory.
Should be a good second half. Nice to see us use big plays and a bunch of different guys to score 21 points in the first half.
• A 66-yard kick return by Warren Norman that led to a TD.
• A 56-yard TD run by true freshman Jonathan Krause.
• A 44-yard TD pass from Larry Smith to Udom Umoh.
• A 57-yard run by Larry Smith.
• An 8-yard TD pass from Larry to Brandon Barden.
Last year, our big play capability seemed limited to Warren's kick returns. This year, we've got more weapons — or at least are using them.
We've got 253 yards of total offense at halftime. Take away the runs by Krause and Smith and the pass from Smith to Umoh and we'd have 96 yards of total offense. But hey, we'll take them any way we can get them.
And speaking of using our tools, we've had six guys (Smith, Stacy, Reeves, Norman, Tate, Krause) carry the ball 17 times for 139 yards, and five guys (Barden, Krause, Umoh, Wimberly) catch the ball eight times for 114 yards.
That's spreading it around. It's especially encouraging to see how we bounced back from a 14-0 deficit built largely on two plays — Krause's fumble on the first play of the game deep in VU territory and our failed fourth down conversion on the UConn 14 yard line after Larry's run had gotten us deep in Husky territory.
Should be a good second half. Nice to see us use big plays and a bunch of different guys to score 21 points in the first half.
Right now, a Vandy win is important, but doesn't mean everything
Before the season started, we told you Vandy would lose a close one to Northwestern, get spanked by LSU and then beat Ole Miss. We also told you that the Commodores would beat UConn by 10 points, 31-21.
So we might as well stick with what's working, right?
After all, at this point Vandy is exactly where we expected them to be, and UConn is even a bit behind where we expected them to be.
You can discount the Ole Miss win, but when we made our preseason predictions, we expected to beat the Rebels precisely because we expected them to take some time to adjust to personnel losses and a new, albeit talented, quarterback. To win in the SEC, Vandy has always needed to take advantage of teams when they're down.
This year, we've predicted six wins, expecting to overpower one team (EMU) and catch three teams when they're down (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Wake Forest).
The other two teams? UConn and Kentucky, both with less than stellar traditions but a nice run of bowl games accomplished by soundly beating the bad teams on their schedule and then using solid players and capitalizing on a couple of star athletes to beat some teams they shouldn't.
Nearly every Vandy site and fan I know is picking the Commodores to beat the Huskies today, just like they pick us to beat Kentucky every year because it's the team closest to ours in terms of talent and tradition and stadium size.
And a lot of Vandy fans are saying we're being disrespected because we're a 7 or 10 point underdog or whatever. Disrespected? We went 2-10 last season and don't have a proven track record in games like this. Remember the Rutgers game we had in hand several years ago on the road?
I even hear Vandy fans saying we're more talented than UConn. This is a UConn team with a running back who averages 150 yards a game running behind an offensive line led by players on the Outland and Remington award lists. Last year, the Husky defense held South Carolina to seven points in the Birmingham Pizza Internet Bowl and won its EIGHTH game of the season.
What I'm saying is this: Yes, I've already predicted Vandy to win by 10 points; I'm sticking with a win but I don't think it'll be easy. I realize, and I think you should remember, that this is a game Vanderbilt should NOT win. I think somehow we figure out a way to win but it's not the end of the world if we lose.
Everybody, even some of the players, are saying we've got to win this game to go to a bowl. Perhaps that's true. But the season is not over if we lose. It's important that we keep building to the future. If UConn plays a great game and beats us, but we improve offensively, get Krause and Matthews some nice catches, contain a running quarterback and continue to show we can stop big-time tailbacks, then we'll have hope for the future. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could lose to UConn and then turn around and upset South Carolina or Georgia.
We've predicted six wins, which is incredibly optimistic. A four-win season would be a vast improvement and put us in a position to get bowl bids in 2011 and 2012. I'm not saying we should expect to lose. I still think we can win, and I think we'll hang with them like we hung with Northwestern. But let's keep the big picture in mind. We feel terrible when we play a ridiculously talented LSU team and lose, and we're giddy with excitement when we beat a struggling Ole Miss team that can't catch the ball.
Beating a UConn team that comes out and, say, fumbles five times or throws seven interceptions may not be as important as narrowly losing to a UConn team that clicks and plays its best game ever and pushes us to learn something important about ourselves that helps us upset some teams later this season.
OK, we'll take three fumbles and four interceptions. I'll revise my prediction to say Vandy, 20-16.
Go Commodores.
So we might as well stick with what's working, right?
After all, at this point Vandy is exactly where we expected them to be, and UConn is even a bit behind where we expected them to be.
You can discount the Ole Miss win, but when we made our preseason predictions, we expected to beat the Rebels precisely because we expected them to take some time to adjust to personnel losses and a new, albeit talented, quarterback. To win in the SEC, Vandy has always needed to take advantage of teams when they're down.
This year, we've predicted six wins, expecting to overpower one team (EMU) and catch three teams when they're down (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Wake Forest).
The other two teams? UConn and Kentucky, both with less than stellar traditions but a nice run of bowl games accomplished by soundly beating the bad teams on their schedule and then using solid players and capitalizing on a couple of star athletes to beat some teams they shouldn't.
Nearly every Vandy site and fan I know is picking the Commodores to beat the Huskies today, just like they pick us to beat Kentucky every year because it's the team closest to ours in terms of talent and tradition and stadium size.
And a lot of Vandy fans are saying we're being disrespected because we're a 7 or 10 point underdog or whatever. Disrespected? We went 2-10 last season and don't have a proven track record in games like this. Remember the Rutgers game we had in hand several years ago on the road?
I even hear Vandy fans saying we're more talented than UConn. This is a UConn team with a running back who averages 150 yards a game running behind an offensive line led by players on the Outland and Remington award lists. Last year, the Husky defense held South Carolina to seven points in the Birmingham Pizza Internet Bowl and won its EIGHTH game of the season.
What I'm saying is this: Yes, I've already predicted Vandy to win by 10 points; I'm sticking with a win but I don't think it'll be easy. I realize, and I think you should remember, that this is a game Vanderbilt should NOT win. I think somehow we figure out a way to win but it's not the end of the world if we lose.
Everybody, even some of the players, are saying we've got to win this game to go to a bowl. Perhaps that's true. But the season is not over if we lose. It's important that we keep building to the future. If UConn plays a great game and beats us, but we improve offensively, get Krause and Matthews some nice catches, contain a running quarterback and continue to show we can stop big-time tailbacks, then we'll have hope for the future. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could lose to UConn and then turn around and upset South Carolina or Georgia.
We've predicted six wins, which is incredibly optimistic. A four-win season would be a vast improvement and put us in a position to get bowl bids in 2011 and 2012. I'm not saying we should expect to lose. I still think we can win, and I think we'll hang with them like we hung with Northwestern. But let's keep the big picture in mind. We feel terrible when we play a ridiculously talented LSU team and lose, and we're giddy with excitement when we beat a struggling Ole Miss team that can't catch the ball.
Beating a UConn team that comes out and, say, fumbles five times or throws seven interceptions may not be as important as narrowly losing to a UConn team that clicks and plays its best game ever and pushes us to learn something important about ourselves that helps us upset some teams later this season.
OK, we'll take three fumbles and four interceptions. I'll revise my prediction to say Vandy, 20-16.
Go Commodores.
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