Long-range draft projections are good for some laughs

How futile is projecting next year's draft prospects? Well, D.J. Moore is proof that it's futile to even project April's draft picks in January of the same year.

Moore was a first-rounder in January and a fourth-rounder in April. Now Myron Lewis is a first-rounder in some projections but who knows where he'll be next January — not to mention next April?

So we won't do it. But we will make fun of projections for next season. For example, cbssports.com has rated the top 750 rising seniors and even rising juniors and sophomores. No kidding. Here are Commodores on the list:

• Myron Lewis, CB, No. 43
• Patrick Benoist, LB, 253
• Greg Billinger, DT, 333
• Ryan Hamilton, FS, 354
• Broderick Stewart, DE, 458
• Brett Upson, P, 570
• Mackenzi Adams, QB, 588
• Drew Gardner, OL, 628
• Steven Stone, DE, 720

Drew Gardner over Thomas Welch and Bradley Vierling? Gardner lost his starting position to a redshirt freshman last year, and at the end of the season announced that he wasn't returning for a fifth year. So he's no longer playing football.

Also interesting are the top prospects for 2011, which would be last year's sophomores:
• Joey Bailey, No. 37 center
• John Stokes, No. 41 outside linebacker
• Justin Green, No. 42 tight end

Bailey and Green aren't even starters, and almost certainly won't be this upcoming season. How about Austin Monahan, the tight end who before injury started ahead of both Branden Barden and Green? These guys, even Stokes, are still raw prospects who could boom or bust in the next two years.

Here are the top prospects for 2012:
• Chris Marve, No. 4 linebacker
• Brandon Barden, No. 5 tight end
• T.J. Greenstone, No. 44 defensive tackle

Rising sophomores, these guys will be a big part of our team for the next three seasons. Marve is a star who could make all-conference this season and get thoughts planted in his head about declaring for the draft after his junior year. Let's hope not.

Bobby Johnson increases talent level at Vandy — the proof's in the past four drafts

With D.J. Moore’s selection in the fourth round, Bobby Johnson has now produced five NFL draft picks in the last four years, including two first-rounders. (He’s been at the helm for eight years now, and 2006 marked his first batch of seniors. Note that he didn’t recruit Jay Cutler but coached him for four seasons.)

We’ve already told you how far Vanderbilt lags behind the rest of the SEC in talent, and how few Commodores have been drafted over the years, especially at the running back position. In fact, in addition to running back, Vandy has produced the few draftees at wide receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and defensive back.

But the Dores have actually produced more draft picks at quarterback than Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina and Miss State, and more kickers and punters than South Carolina, LSU, Kentucky and Miss State. Go ahead and pop the cork.

In case you’re curious, here’s who sets the bar at different positions in the SEC since 1967:
• Quarterback U: Tennessee and LSU with 10 picks each
• Running Back U: Auburn (29)
• Receiver U: Florida (43)
• O-Line U: Tennessee (45)
• D-Line U: LSU and Alabama (34)
• Linebacker U: Tennessee (35)
• D-Back U: Tennessee (34)
• Kicker U: Tennessee (14)

But that’s over the past 40 years. What about the past four, with Bobby Johnson developing his own talent? Here’s the draft count from 2006-2009:

1. LSU (25 total, 7 first-rounders)
2. Georgia (21/2)
3. Florida (17/4)
4. Auburn (17/1)
5. Tennessee (14/5)
6. Arkansas (12/3)
7. South Carolina (12/1)
8. Alabama (11/1)
9. Ole Miss (7/3)
10. Vanderbilt (5/2)
11. Kentucky (5/0)
12. Miss State (2/0)

So here’s what Bobby Johnson has done in the past four years with mostly two- and three-star recruits, while every other school’s had three-, four- and five-star recruits: Developed as many first-rounders as Georgia’s Mark Richt, and more than SC’s Steve Spurrier, Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville, Bama’s Mike Shula/Nick Saban, Kentucky’s Rich Brooks and MSU’s Sylvester Croom.

You know how Woody Widenhofer would attract linebackers and George MacIntyre would get receivers and tight ends? Well, Johnson gets talent across the board. He’s actually had six picks in his four classes if you count Jovan Haye, who left school a year early.

Three of them have been on offense: QB Cutler, OT Chris Williams and WR Earl Bennett.

Three of them have been on defense: DT Haye, DB Moore and LB Jonathan Goff.

Six different positions.

And here's the thing: While our best players are better than we've ever had, our role players and even the guys standing on the sidelines are better than we've ever had.

I realized this a couple of years ago when I was sitting in South Carolina's stadium and saw captains Chris Williams and Jonathan Goff take the field first. They were as impressive-looking as any of the Gamecocks. And then the rest of the team took the field. When I was a student back in the late 80s, we had a couple of guys like Corey Harris and Chris Gaines, but our bench — and even the two-deep roster — was loaded with pudgy fellows who looked like we recruited them from fraternity flag football. But in South Carolina, I saw that even the Commodores who weren't playing were big, strong and fast. And sure enough, we overpowered the Gamecocks that day for a stunning victory.

And we stunned them again last season.

How many draft picks do you think Vandy will have next season? DB Myron Lewis seems like the best possibility, followed by OT Thomas Welch. Also, DT Greg Billinger and DEs Broderick Stewart and Steven Stone could join them, and LB Patrick Benoist, S Ryan Hamilton and C Brad Vierling would at least get invited to somebody’s camp.

George Smith bumps Vanderbear total to six — oh, and Reshard Langford's an Eagle

George Smith has signed a free-agent contract with the Chicago Bears, putting the number of former Commodores in the Bears camp to six.

Which means he'll be competing against Earl Bennett, his Vandy teammate of three years, as well as 2009 draft picks Juaquin Iglesias of Oklahoma (third round) and Johnny Knox of Abilene Christian (fifth round).

Don't bet on George. His photo will forever be in the dictionary under "Perseverance." And his huge third-down catch in the Music City Bowl set up the winning field goal. But he had trouble catching balls in traffic last season, and I guarantee you Earl isn't worried about him, though he may be worried about Iglesias and some other guys.

Oh, and Reshard Langford is going to the Eagles' camp. I'm telling you, Reshard's going to be a tough guy to cut and the Eagles seem like a good fit for him.

Should D.J. Moore have stayed in school? No.

Chris Low is saying on his blog that D.J. Moore should have stayed in school another year. Sure, the Commodores would be better off with him in the lineup next season.

But I disagree.

What else could D.J. possibly have accomplished with the Commodores next season? He was first-team All-SEC and second-team All-American. He had two interceptions and two touchdown receptions in a nationally televised game against Kentucky that made Vandy bowl-eligible for the first time since the first Reagan administration.

He played big and he played fast and so guys like Mel Kiper were projecting him as a first-rounder. But then he went to the combine where numbers on paper matter more than how you played in big games in college. And the scouts realized that in addition to being 5-foot-8 — instead of his listed 5-foot-10 — he also ran a 4.55 40-yard dash.

All of a sudden, Scouts Inc. dropped his Height-Weight-Speed rating from a 2 to a 4, and his closing burst down to a 3. And his ball skills down to a 2. Anybody who's watched D.J. play knows he's got top-notch ball skills.

If D.J. stayed in school another year, there's no guarantee he'd put up the same numbers he did last season because people would be keying on him. And there's no guarantee Vanderbilt would be in the national spotlight like the team was last season. And there's certainly no guarantee with the talent in the SEC and the exposure that the big-name schools get that he'd even make first-team all-conference again, let alone second-team All-American.

And he'd probably post similar numbers in the combine. He'd still be 5-foot-8, and he wouldn't be running a 4.3 or a 4.4. So take away last season's fanfare but keep this year's combine results and his stock isn't going to be any better.

Can you say Derek Pegues or Arian Foster? Both were all-conference players for bowl teams in 2007 and would have been drafted last year if they'd come out early. But they stayed in school, their teams struggled, and their stock dropped. Neither was drafted yesterday.

I think D.J. made the right decision. He's a football player. He can always go back and get his Vanderbilt diploma. And when he gets on the field, people are going to take notice.

Scouting guru Mel Kiper, who's said all along that D.J. will be fine when he gets to the NFL, called him a "good pick." Todd McShay says the Bears "hit a homer" with D.J. and called him the team's best pick of the draft.

If we could fly around the world like Superman and reverse time and take away these three plays, I think D.J. would have gone a lot higher:

• D.J. falling a yard short of the goal line on his punt return against Miami-Ohio.

• D.J. being tackled a yard short of the goal line on his punt return against Rice.

• D.J. giving up a quick down and out from No. 1 pick Matthew Stafford to future first-rounder A.J. Green in the first quarter of the Georgia game. Green looked about 8 feet tall on that play, which made D.J. look about 4 feet tall.

Them's the breaks. But D.J. had a great season and he felt he was ready for the next level.

“I felt I was ready to go," he told the Nashville City Paper of his decision to forgo his senior season. "I didn’t believe I was going to get too much better than what I was. I was one of the best cornerbacks in the best conference, playing with the best players. I felt I was the best cornerback in the draft.”

And maybe he was. Time will tell. But he's not going to have to wait a year to prove it.

Chicago Bears overtake Tampa Bay Buccaneers for most Vanderbilt players

So has any NFL team in recent history had as many Vanderbilt players as the current edition of the Chicago Bears?

With the way rosters change it's tough to tell exactly, but as far as permanent rosters go, with five Commodores I think the Bears are in the lead — or in the cellar, depending on how you look at it.

Of course, the Buccaneers had the market cornered at the turn of this century. I remember watching a Monday Night Football game in 2001-2002 when Dennis Miller exclaimed, "Tampa Bay has more Vanderbilt football players than... Vanderbilt!" (OK, I thought it was funny, but then again I'm one of three people on earth who liked Miller on MNF.)

Between 2000 and 2008, the Bucs have had six Vandy players on their rosters, though not at the same time. The most at one time was four in 2000-2001, with Shelton Quarles, Jamie Duncan, Eric Vance and Todd Yoder. They had three in 2006, with Quarles, Jovan Haye and Jamie Winborn.

D.J. Moore joins Earl, Jay, Chris and Hunter in Chicago

Still can't believe D.J. slipped from a projected first-rounder in January to a fourth-rounder today, the second day of the draft.

Months ago, D.J. Moore was one of the top three cornerbacks along with Jenkins of Ohio State and Davis of Illinois. But today he was actually the 18th cornerback selected. He was taken 36 picks after Asher Allen of Georgia and 27 picks below Jerraud Powers of Auburn, and those guys had never been mentioned in the same sentence as D.J.

But I think he'll do just fine, and I think he'll be a better pro than Earl Bennett, whom the Bears took in the third round last season. Of course, Earl has that whole mind-meld thing going with his new quarterback and old Vandy teammate Jay Cutler.

If you like following Vanderbilt plays in the NFL, you might as well just watch the Bears, who now have a whopping five Commodores — Moore, Bennett, Cutler, Chris Williams and Hunter Hillenmeyer.

Maybe Reshard Langford can sign as a free agent. Wasn't surprised Reshard didn't get drafted, especially when D.J. slipped as far as he did, but still think he'll surprise some folks when he gets to an NFL camp.

SEC COUNT: South Carolina led the way among SEC teams with seven drafted, including Ryan Succop, the kicker-punter, as Mr. Irrelevant. (Sure it was irrelevant when there were 27 rounds or whatever in the draft but is it really that irrelevant anymore?) Georgia and LSU were next with six players, then Bama and Ole Miss with four each, then Auburn and Florida with three. Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee had one guy each. Miss State played but did not score.

D.J. Moore still on the NFL Draft board at the start of day two — and it's not the end of the world

For those of you who are angry that D.J. Moore didn't get picked yesterday and you missed the chance to talk some trash on chat boards with Volunteer fans: chill out.

D.J. remains a great college player and could end up being a better pro than Matthew Stafford. Who knows?

He's never been a guy who enjoys talking to guys with clip boards and then running around cones while they jot down notes. Let's face it: He doesn't make a good first impression. How did a high school kid who made such an immediate impact in the SEC fall under the radar of guys like Steve Spurrier and Mark Richt?

When he's in a camp and all that matters is keeping the guy he's covering from catching the ball or catching the ball and not getting tackled, I think he'll do fine.

The NFL draft is the ultimate meat market and everybody's an expert. One minute D.J.'s a first-rounder who's 5-foot-11 and runs a 4.3 40. The next minute he's 5-foot-1 and runs a 4.9 40.

And don't forget, lots of 10-year NFL players were taken in the second day — or not at all. And this year, lots of guys who were supposed to go yesterday are still waiting for a phone call. The list includes defensive end Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech and safety Rashard Johnson of Alabama and tight end Jared Cook of South Carolina.

But what if D.J. is a bust? What if Earl Bennett never catches a pass in the NFL? Both guys would still be proof that Bobby Johnson's system of developing players nobody wants — and enabling them to compete at the highest level and contribute to a team that's starting to scare the bejeebers out of powerhouses — works. Because regardless of Vanderbilt's success, Johnson's never going to be recruiting high school players like Bryce Brown who think they're going to be the first pick in the draft in a couple of years. He's recruiting kids who want to be successful people regardless of whether they're playing sports or not. And isn't that what attracted us to Vanderbilt in the first place?