Saturday, November 15, 2008

LIVE UPDATE: VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY: END OF FIRST QUARTER

We're up 14-0. We haven't scored more than 14 points in any of our last five games. Here we go:

• Cobb dances around and gets about 6 yards. It's 2nd & 4 on the 36. Now Dixon gets one.

• 0:57: On third down, Cobb throw incomplete and another three and out. Let's score again! After Washington actually catches the punt.

• 0:37: Washington catches the punt cleanly. Holy smokes, Miss State is leading Alabama 7-5 in the second quarter in Tuscaloosa.

• 0:20: Nickson to Sean Walker for a couple. 2nd & 8. That's the first quarter. We're up 14-0 and we could be going bowling for the first time in 26 years, folks.

LIVE UPDATE: VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY: FIRST QUARTER: COMMODORES 14-0

That was the first TD reception of DJ's career. Now the Wildcats have the ball:

• Steven Stone rocks Dixon for no gain. 2nd & 10.

• Cobb fires a four-yard pass. 3rd & 7 on the 37. We almost sack him and then he almost gets a first down. But he doesn't. Cats gotta punt. I think that early score's gonna do wonders for the Commodores.

• Alex Washington muffs the punt but somehow recovers it. Why is Alex Washington returning punts and not DJ Moore? (I know Jamie Graham is injured and didn't attend the game.)

• 7:54: Let's score again. 1st & 10 on the 20. Nickson on the loose. Now it's 2nd & 4.

• 6:45: Nickson picks up 20. This looks like the Miami-Ohio game. Go Chris go! 1st & 10 on the 45.

• 6:14: Now Hawkins gets rocked for a loss. Just saw the final for the SC-Fla game. 56-6. I feel better. Nickson to Barden. Now it's 3rd & 7 on the 50.

• Chris chunks a ball out of bounds. Now we're punting. Hey, let's get a turnover and take it to the house!

• Kentucky's quarterback is returning the punt. But the Cats just roughed our punter so we're back in business. Kentucky is a slow-starting team (we've been that way, too) so let's score while we can. 1st & 10 on the UK 36. Jennings stuffed for a loss. I think Nickson should just keep the ball on every play.

• 4:00: 2nd & 10: Nickson to George Smith who dives for a first down. I've been hard on George lately but he looks great in this game. Way to go, George. 1st & 10 on the UK24.

• Chris shakes and bakes for four yards. 2nd & 6. Jennings gets a couple. 3rd & 4. It's good to see DJ Moore in there on offense.

• 2:10: DJ MOORE BURNS TREVARD LINDLEY FOR ANOTHER TOUCHDOWN RECEPTION.

We're playing to win, baby! Our Thorpe-nominated cornerback has two touchdown receptions in the first quarter. Hahnfeldt hits and it's 14-0.

LIVE UPDATE: VANDERBILT-KENTUCKY: FIRST QUARTER: COMMODORES LEAD 7-0

Looks like a nasty, nasty night in Lexington. It's raining but the rain has chunks in it. And Bob Davie's on the broadcast crew for ESPN2.

Now for the play by play:

14:55: Gaston Miller gets rocked on the kickoff. Commodores start off with their usual stellar field position — the 15.

14:47: Nickson's the starter, thank goodness, and he keeps and picks up about 6 yards. Keep it, Chris, keep it.

14:11: Nickson sacked and fumbles but fortunately we fall on it. Now it's 3rd and about 10. Oh boy, Chris is gonna pass. Hawkins catches a pass and books into UK territory. There's a flag but it's off-sides Wildcats.

13:10: 1st and 10 on the UK 45. Chris options to Hawkins for 8 yards. Man, if we could score first! We haven't done it all season.

12:05: Chris keeps it and is just short of the first down. I'm glad he's in the game, how ’bout you?

11:25: Hawkins picks up the first with some nice, shifty running.

10:54: Nickson gets 9 yards and we're on the 21. Looks like Nickson's back.

10:22: Nickson fumbles the snap. His hands must be frozen.

9:37: Incomplete pass. Now it's 4th and 4 on the 20-something. We're going for it. We're 1-5 on fourth down conversions. DJ in the game. But we call a timeout. Bobby looks angry. Everybody looks cold. We need to get some points here. But at the worst, we avoided a three-and-out and rested our defense a bit.

9:31: YES! DJ Moore grabs a beautiful touchdown pass. This will probably be reviewed. Nope. Hahnfeldt makes the PAT.

WE'VE SCORED FIRST FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. NOW LET'S GO, DEFENSE!

Player of the game so far: Chris Nickson.

These look like the September Commodores.

FLORIDA'S WHIPPING SOUTH CAROLINA — AND THE COMMODORES DON'T FEEL SO BAD ANYMORE

Remember how last week the Commodores were losing 28-0 to Florida at the start of the second quarter? Well, with 11:20 left in the second quarter, South Carolina, which boasts the nation's third best defense, is losing to Florida 28-0.

VANDERBILT'S DEPTH CHART: WHAT'S CHANGED, WHAT'S NOT


I think it's interesting to look back at the preseason depth chart and see who turned out to be better or worse than the coaching staff thought. I'll break it down by position in a second, but here's a quick summary of guys who've really stepped up for us this year:

• Redshirt freshman receiver and return man Jamie Graham
• Redshirt freshman tight end Brandon Barden
• Redshirt freshman linebacker Chris Marve
• Junior running back Jared Hawkins

Where would we be without these guys? Graham kept us in the Georgia game with two spectacular touchdowns and broke Rice's back with a touchdown run, while Barden's touchdown catches were the turning points in the South Carolina and Auburn games, and Marve singlehandedly sealed the Ole Miss game by stripping the ball from Dexter McCluster on the goal line. And nearly every game we've won has featured Hawkins bulling his way for first downs to burn off the clock.

Anyway, here's a breakdown, position by position:

QUARTERBACK
• Stepped up: Uh, nobody.
• Holding steady: Uh, nobody.
• Stepped down: Uh, nobody.
• Dropped off: Uh, nobody.

If you'd told me that after nine games the depth chart would still read "Chris Nickson or Mackenzi Adams" I'd tell you we were having a bad season. Of course, if it said "Larry Smith or Jared Funk" we'd be having a worse season. (Though I still want to see Larry Smith get in a game this season.)

RUNNING BACK
• Stepped up: Jared Hawkins. Now the clear starter.
• Holding steady: Third-teamer Gaston Miller.
• Stepped down: Jeff Jennings. Firmly second team.
• Dropped off: Nobody.

RECEIVER
• Stepped up: Jamie Graham, a starter not on the preseason two-deep; Alex Washington, second-teamer not listed at preseason
• Holding steady: Starter Sean Walker, backup Udom Umoh
• Stepped down: George Smith and Justin Wheeler now sharing a starting position
• Dropped off: Chris Reinert injured, Turner Wimberly and Andrew Diomande no longer listed

TIGHT END
• Stepped up: Brandon Barden the clear starter
• Holding steady: Nobody
• Stepped down: Jake Bradford now second-team
• Dropped off: Austin Monahan injured

OFFENSIVE LINE
• Stepped up: Starting left tackle Reilly Lauer, backup center Chris Aaron
• Holding steady: Starting center Bradley Vierling, starting guards Ryan Custer and Eric Hensley, starting tackle Thomas Welch, utility backups Kyle Fischer and Joey Bailey, backup tackle James Williams
• Dropped off: Preseason starting guard Drew Gardner, preseason backup guards Nick Forte and Ryan Vance

How many different combinations have we used on the offensive line? While the quarterback situation has gotten most of the ink, the coaching staff has been doing an awful lot of tinkering with the offensive line. Though four of today's predicted starters were preseason starters, left tackle Welch is now at right tackle and right tackle Eric Hensley is now at guard. In all, a whopping 12 different lineman have played this season and eight of them have started at least one game.

DEFENSIVE LINE
• Stepped up: True freshman Rob Lohr listed as second team but hasn't played yet
• Holding steady: Starters Greg Billinger and Adam Smotherman and backup T.J. Greenstone
• Dropped off: Derrius Dowell (injured)

DEFENSIVE END
• Stepped up: Redshirt freshman Tim Fugger
• Holding steady: Starters Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart and backup Theron Kadri
• Stepped down: Teriall Brannon now listed as third team

LINEBACKERS
• Stepped up: Starter Chris Marve
• Holding steady: Starters John Stokes and Patrick Benoist, backups Chris Johnson and Nate Campbell, Brent Trice (moved from strong safety)
• Dropped off: Starter Brandon Bryant (injured), backup Austin Newton

DEFENSIVE BACKS
• Stepped up: True freshmen backups Sean Richardson at safety and Casey Hayward at nickel back
• Holding steady: Starting cornerbacks D.J. Moore and Myron Lewis, starting safeties Reshard Langford and Ryan Hamilton, backups Alan Strong, Joel Caldwell and Josh Allen
• Dropped off: Backup nickel back Jared Fagan

SPECIAL TEAMS
• Stepped up: True freshman backup kicker Ryan Fowler, backup snapper David Giller, backup kick returner Gaston Miller and punt returner Jamie Graham
• Holding steady: Starting kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt, starting punter Brett Upson, returner D.J. Moore, snapper John Stokes
• Dropped off: Backup kicker John Laughrey, backup snapper Nick Miller, backup kick returner Sean Walker, starting punt returner Alex Washington

WHO VANDERBILT FANS SHOULD ROOT FOR TODAY (BESIDES VANDERBILT)


Let's just assume that the Commodores are going to take care of business this season and become bowl eligible, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Here are the bowls with SEC tie-ins, from biggest to smallest payout:
• Automatic BCS bowl (national championship game or Sugar Bowl)
• At-large BCS bowl (Sugar, Fiesta, Orange or Rose Bowl)
• Capital One Bowl, Orlando ($4.25 million)
• Cotton Bowl, Dallas ($3 million)
• Outback Bowl, Tampa ($3 million)
• Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Atlanta ($2.4 million)
• Liberty Bowl, Memphis ($1.7 million)
• Music City Bowl, Nashville ($1.6 million)
• Independence Bowl, Shreveport, La. ($1.1 million)
• Papajohns.com Bowl, Birmingham, Ala. ($300,000)

So with our eyes on the best bowl possible, whom should Commodore fans back in today's games?

South Carolina (7-3) at Florida (8-1): Florida. The Gators are already headed to the SEC championship game. Sure, it'd be great to see the Gamecocks wipe that smirk off Urban Meyer's face. But think about this: If Vanderbilt beats Kentucky and Tennessee, which it could, and Carolina falls to Florida, which it should, then Vanderbilt will finish third in the SEC East, ahead of Carolina, or would even tie Georgia for second if the Bulldogs lost to Auburn today. Combine that with a win over Wake Forest, which is still in the running for the ACC championship, and Vanderbilt could get an upgrade from the Music City or Liberty Bowl to the Outback, Cotton or Chick-Fil-A Bowl. So go Gators!

• Miss State (3-6) at Alabama (10-0): Sure, it'd be great to see the Bulldogs wipe those goofy grins off the faces of everybody in Tide Nation. And it would make Commodores feel better about the beatdown we got in Starkville. But Alabama is already headed to the SEC championship game and a major bowl. Remember how State turned its season around after a victory over the Tide last season? If Croom pulled an upset, his team would have the confidence and momentum needed to possibly beat Arkansas in Starkville and Ole Miss in Oxford. Which means the Bulldogs would be bowl eligible. If Vanderbilt were also bowl eligible, that would mean at least nine SEC teams were going bowling. And if the Commodores sneaked in with six wins, the Liberty Bowl could take the Bulldogs, who painted that place maroon last season, and send the Commodores packing to Shreveport and the Independence Bowl. So Roll Tide!

• Georgia (8-2) at Auburn (5-5): It's nice to think about Auburn upsetting Georgia and creating the possibility that Vanderbilt could finish tied with the Bulldogs for second in the SEC East. But an Auburn win also would make the Tigers bowl eligible, and bowl committees in Atlanta (Chick-Fil-A), Nashville (Music City) and Memphis (Liberty) would be mighty tempted to choose the Tigers and their impressive fan following. Which means a six- or even seven-win Vanderbilt team could be headed to Shreveport instead of, say, Memphis or Nashville. So go Dawgs!

• Troy (6-3) at LSU (6-3): Doesn't much matter. A Troy win would be a stunner and something cool to see. And if the Tigers stumbled down the stretch against Ole Miss or Arkansas and Vanderbilt won out, the Commodores could vault as high as the Cotton Bowl. But that's a pipe dream. LSU is a strong team and a lock to go to either the Cotton or Outback Bowl. But what the heck: Go Trojans!

• La-Monroe (3-7) at Ole Miss (5-4): The Rebels should win this one easily to become bowl eligible, and an upset in Baton Rouge and a win in the Egg Bowl could catapult them past LSU and into the Cotton or Outback Bowl. Right now, though, they're projecting as low as Music City or Liberty and as high as Chick-Fil-A. If the Rebels fell today and Vanderbilt won, the Commodores would take a huge step to scoring a better bowl. So go Warhawks!

Some final thoughts on Vanderbilt (5-4) at Kentucky (6-4): Winning this game would likely put the Commodores in a better bowl than the Wildcats regardless of what happened in the last two games of the season. This means if, say, the Music City Bowl or Liberty Bowl were deciding between Kentucky and Vanderbilt and the next available bowl was the Independence in Shreveport, then the Commodores would likely be playing their bowl in Tennessee. And if South Carolina, Ole Miss or LSU stumbles down the stretch and the Commodores finish strong, then Vanderbilt could have a great shot at playing in the Georgia Dome on New Year's Eve (Chick-Fil-A) or even Dallas for the Cotton or Tampa for the Outback Bowl.

But I know what you're thinking: Let's focus on what we can control and beat Kentucky.

VANDERBILT NEEDS TO SCORE FIRST

How big a boost would it be for Vanderbilt to score the first points of tonight's game in Lexington?

Huge. The Commodores haven't scored first in any game they've played this year. Not even against Miami of Ohio. Remember, Jeff Jennings fumbled on the first drive and the Redhawks kicked a field goal.

That's a staggering fact and further proof that, well, Vanderbilt is a bad offensive team.

Last season, Vanderbilt struck first against Ole Miss, Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Miami-Ohio and Wake Forest — and beat all those teams except Wake. The only team the Commodores fell behind and beat was Richmond.